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Second, they use different modeling approaches with different underlying model structure and climate parameters. Third, the tree data are from a different source for each model: Tree Atlas relies on FIA data from natural environments, whereas this study relied on survey data from cultivated settings.

This discrepancy does not mean that either or both of these model projections are wrong, but rather that modeling habitat suitability in urban environments is complex and may depend on site-specific situations and the degree to which a site is developed.

They compared the most common street tree species in cities representing each of the 16 California climate zones with trees in cities that currently have climates that approximate the expected warmer conditions in the 16 cities 80 years from now. Lacan said he and McBride were surprised to find that coastal cities and their warm equivalents contain most of the same common urban tree species, while the warm equivalents of inland cities seemed to lack most and, in some cases, all of the common trees there today.

One realizes just how much is at stake, how much has already been lost, how much is at risk over the short term, and how much more over the long term.

The essential motive of wild lands conservation was and is to keep relatively undisturbed areas away from human interference so that native species can persist in their myriad diversity, and so that evolution can continue to do its slow, transformative work. The fact that many conservationists are now contemplating or actively involved in assisted migration programs should tell us just how dire the climate crisis is. Bristlecone pine and limber pine trees in the Great Basin region are like two very gnarled, old men in a slow-motion race up the mountaintop, and climate change is the starting gun, according to a study from the University of California, Davis.

The study, published in the journal Global Change Biology , shows that the tree line has been steadily moving upslope over the past 50 years in the Great Basin. Its north and south are framed by the Columbia and Colorado rivers' watersheds. The study also found that limber pine is successfully "leapfrogging" over bristlecone pine. They are growing in soils once almost completely dominated by bristlecone pine, and they are moving upslope at a faster rate than the bristlecone pine.

So it's very odd to see it charging upslope and not see bristlecone charging upslope ahead of limber pine, or at least with it. Mark Schwartz was an early participant in the assisted migration debate, and he studied Torreya taxifolia as a graduate student.

He also was lead author of the ESA working group on "managed relocation" that culminated in a coauthor paper. This minute video is a useful introduction, both to the historic roots of the debate and to his own perspective on the importance of decision-making frameworks that include careful study of possible risks of species relocation to the "recipient ecosystem.

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach.

Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology , the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges.

We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems Key risks associated with projected climate trends for the 21st century include the prospects of future climate states with no current analog and the disappearance of some extant climates.

Because climate is a primary control on species distributions and ecosystem processes, novel 21st-century climates may promote formation of novel species associations and other ecological surprises, whereas the disappearance of some extant climates increases risk of extinction for species with narrow geographic or climatic distributions and disruption of existing communities.

In the face of anthropogenic climate change, species must acclimate, adapt, move, or die. Although some species are moving already, their ability to keep up with the faster changes expected in the future is unclear.

Plant movements are not realistically represented in models currently used to predict future vegetation and carbon-cycle feedbacks, so there is an urgent need to understand how much of a problem failure to track climate change is likely to be.

Therefore, in this review, we compare how fast plants need to move with how fast they can move; that is, the velocity of climate change with the velocity of plant movement Paleoecological studies show that movement was a near universal response to past changes in climate [1] and many species have moved in recent decades [2] in response to rates of climate change that are apparently unprecedented in the Holocene [3].

However, some plant species failed to keep up with the generally slower warming at the end of last glacial period [4] and most plant populations have tracked recent warming only partly or not at all [2,]. Failure to track climate change is expected to have a large impact on growth and survival, leading to plant extinctions and a reduction in the strength of the terrestrial carbon sink [9].

Delays in plant movements may also slow the movements of animals that depend on them for food or habitat. The need for plant movements, however, is not currently included in global vegetation models, which only estimate the potential future vegetation, assuming there are no limitations on plant movements Box 1.

In this review, we assess the ability of plants to keep up with climate change, explore the consequences of their not doing so, and discuss possible management responses. The velocity of climate change is the velocity at which something must move over the surface of the Earth to maintain constant climatic conditions.

Estimated global mean velocities of change for mean annual temperature and rainfall from to are 0. In contrast to its broad distribution today, there is no fossil evidence of P. Despite extensive glacial-age macrofossil records at low- and mid-elevational sites across the western interior, P. In contrast, many current associates, including Douglas-fir Pseudotsuga menziesii , limber pine Pinus flexilis and Rocky Mountain juniper Juniperus scopulorum , were widespread across the region Betancourt, ; Cole, ; Jackson et al.

The limited glacial distribution of var. During the past 13, years, var. Specific goals were to determine 1 whether P. The radical proposal to establish naturalized populations of torreya in these areas outside its native range was inspired in part by my Smith College colleague Rob Nicholson, who wrote in a Natural History magazine piece on the decline of torreya that an artificial refugium might be established in the southern Appalachians to ensure the continued survival and evolution of the species in the wild.

The fossil record has produced evidence of torreya in North Carolina in earlier geologic periods, showing that its natural range has indeed extended elsewhere in the past.

Given the negative trends in the present-day wild populations of Florida torreya, it is possible that naturalized plantings outside the native range and in botanic garden collections might be the only place where the species survives in the future.

Barlow and Martin argued that ensuring the species survival in the wild, even if beyond its historical range boundaries, should be a top priority.

However, alongside this provocative piece, conservation biologist and long-time torreya researcher Mark Schwartz responded with an article contending that "conservationists should not move Torreya taxifolia ,"citing invasion risks and the need to invest in conserving species within their current native ranges. Even now, 10 years later, the contours of the scientific and ethical debate sketched out by these well-intentioned authors continues Fred Bess of Cleveland Ohio left in photo is the Torreya Guardians liaison collaborating with Ohio State University's Secrest Arboretum Paul Snyder is at right in photo to encourage and foster the planting of a Torreya taxifolia grove on their grounds.

A minute video , recorded by Connie Barlow during a site visit in September , shows the early stages in that effort. The photo at left shows the potted seedlings grown from seeds harvested autumn by Torreya Guardians that will eventually be planted out on the arboretum grounds.

Connie Barlow presents the rationale for advocating "assisted migration" northward to help an endangered conifer tree, Florida Torreya Torreya taxifolia , recover from otherwise certain extinction. This action is recognized as the first intentional "assisted migration" for a plant species in the USA in direct response to climate change.

FORUM both articles for wide screen. Click above for Parmeson talking about the need for assisted migration in U. Conservation biologist Camille Parmeson is profiled in her advocacy for translocation of species threatened by climate change. She is quoted, "It doesn't make any sense to say it's OK for the shipping industry and the transport industry to accidentally move stuff around, for the aquarium trade to move stuff around, for the garden trade to move stuff all over the place, but that it's not OK for a conservation biologist who is desperately trying to save a species from extinction to move it miles.

Come on, we have mucked around with Earth to such a degree that I think it's a ridiculous argument. Parmesan's focal butterfly species along s. For plants, at any rate, the solution seems clear: As Hunter points out: Figure left is a map of no-analog "extra-mural" bio-climatic envelopes forecast to arise during the 21st century of climate change, by Rehfeldt et al.

Forest Service document, by Mary I. Kasten Dumroese, Jeremiah R. Pinto, and Martin F. Annotated bibliography grouped into four topics: Data points intensively sampling 46 North American biomes were used to predict the geographic distribution of biomes from climate variables using the Random Forests classification tree. Biome climates were projected into the future according to low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios of three General Circulation Models for three periods, the 1 expansion of climates suitable for the tropical dry deciduous forests of Mexico 2 expansion of climates typifying desertscrub biomes of western USA and northern Mexico 3 stability of climates typifying the evergreen-deciduous forests of eastern USA 4 northward expansion of climates suited to temperate forests, Great Plains grasslands, and montane forests to the detriment of taiga and tundra climates.

Our analysis uses the biotic communities of Brown , mapped and digitized by Brown et al. This classification system meshes well with our goals: It is based on distributions of flora and fauna without reliance on physiography, the coverage includes all of North America, and altitudinal zonation of vegetation is an integral part of the system.

Maps indicating either poor agreement among projections or climates without contemporary analogs identify geographic areas where land management programs would be most equivocal.

Concentrating efforts and resources where projections are more certain can assure land managers a greater likelihood of success. Land managers require decision-support tools suitable for dealing with oncoming climate-mediated ecosystem changes. Progress has been made in convertng climatically static vegetation simulators to climatically dynamic models see Crookston et al.

Yet, for much of North America, comprehensive management guidelines do not exist. Our goal was to develop a statistically valid, climate-driven vegetation model suitable for land-use planning during a changing climate. The maps convey a high likelihood that no-analog climates should arise early and increase in concentration throughout the century particularly along the Gulf of Mexico , but also in the interior Northwest of the United States and adjacent Canada , through much of California on the west coast, and sporadically through the Arctic.

Despite disagreement among projections and an expectation for patches of novel climates along Alaska's USA south shore , future climates presage an influx of Rocky Mountain conifers and Canadian Taiga at the expense of the alpine tundra and subarctic conifers that occur there today. We find that, on average, populations already lag behind their optimal climate niche by approximately km in latitude, or 60 m in elevation.

For the s we expect an average lag of approximately km in latitude or m in elevation, with the most pronounced geographic lags in the Rocky Mountains and the boreal forest. We show that our results could in principle be applied to guide assisted migration of planting stock in reforestation programs using a general formula where km north shift is equivalent to approximately 44 m upward shift in elevation. However, additional non-climatic factors should be considered when matching reforestation stock to suitable planting environments.

In widespread tree species , genetically differentiated populations are uniquely and often narrowly adapted to their local environments. Hence, climate change impacts will not be limited to the trailing edge of a species range, but instead may apply to populations throughout the species range.

For species and population level analysis we selected 15 major forest tree species of commercial importance in western North America. Highly detailed online maps to compare current, , , and range predictions for 76 species of western USA trees. Always click on the. For example, Alligator Juniper , now absent from Colorado, is expected to have ideal range open up west of Denver in , while southerly populations become stressed. How are they going to get there, as the closest current population is near Santa Fe NM?

Professionals should read the explanatory paper of how these modeled map projections were generated, "Empirical Analyses of Plant-Climate Relationships for the Western United States" , G. A lower emission pathway would result in lower numbers of both losers and gainers. When the mean centers, i.

The models suggest a retreat of the spruce-fir zone and an advance of the southern oaks and pines. In any case, our results show that species will have a lot less pressure to move their suitable habitats if we follow the path of lower emissions of greenhouse gases. Our predictions of increase in range potential future suitable habitat are very likely to be overestimates of the actual ranges that would be achieved by the end of this century, as migration of most species will not keep up with relatively abrupt changes in climate, unless humans get seriously involved in moving species.

This comparative study, a first of its kind as far as we know, standardizes outputs from three unique forest landscape models across spatial four regions and temporal , , scales, a range of climate scenarios PCM B1 and GFDL A1fi , species 30 total, most common species; region totals varied from 15 to 24 , and evaluation metric future: Standardizing in this manner enables an increased understanding of underlying drivers of differences across models that use diverse approaches and assumptions.

Hereafter, we refer to the two sets of model projections as "unrefined" and "refined" niche model projections. The unrefined projections define the future locations of the climatic conditions in which the species is found today and thus areas that are likely to be climatically suitable , whereas the refined projections define the areas that are likely to be climatically suitable in the future and, given the effects of soils, interactions between plant functional types, the effects of CO2 enrichment, and fire, will likely support the plant functional type to which the species belongs.

What It Means to Nursery Managers and Tree Planters" is an excellent short introduction intended for landscapers and their clients, urging that planting for climate change become integral to the profession. The authors Williams and Dumroese distinguish 3 types of assisted migration: Florida Torreya is the illustrated example of type 3.

This paper by Susan March Leech et al. It was published 2 years after field experiments began for British Columbia's Assisted Migration Adaptation Trial , and is a superb overview of that effort. Crucially, it sets the Canadian practices within the context of global climate initiatives in forestry. Climate Change Response Framework The Framework is a collaborative, cross-boundary approach among scientists, managers, and landowners to incorporate climate change considerations into natural resource management.

It provides an integrated set of tools, partnerships, and actions to support climate-informed conservation and forest management. Six Framework projects see map left encompass 19 states in the eastern USA , including 14 National Forests and millions of acres of forestland. Each regional project interweaves four components: Learn more about how the components interact to build a flexible, scalable, and effective strategy.

Climate Change Tools and Approaches for Land Managers 2nd edition, Map left shows dots for all the forest management institutional partners whose experiences in using the USFS climate resources have contributed to this second edition. Beginning as a pilot program in northern Wisconsin, this highly collaborative effort expanded to several ecoregional projects across the midwest and northeast United States. It builds off of two fundamental ideas. First, because climate change inherently adds complexity and un- certainty to the process of making forest management decisions, there is no single "answer" for how managers should address climate change in management.

Additionally, differences in existing management goals and values will naturally result in a diversity of adaptation actions.

Rather than providing recommendations or prescriptive actions, we designed a flexible approach that accommodates a diversity of management goals, forest ecosystems, ownership types, and spatial scales Swanston and Janowiak Given the need to consider incomplete information and to "learn by doing," adaptive management principles are well-suited for incorporating climate change considerations into management.

Although no active management is currently planned in these stands, swamp white oak Quercus bicolor and bur oak Quercus macrocarpa were identified as two potential species that could be planted in lowland hardwood forests to maintain forest cover if intervention was deemed necessary.

These species are not currently present on the property but can be found in localized areas in northern Wisconsin, which would represent a small degree of assisted migration. Forest Service Although "assisted migration" is rarely mentioned in this report, the need for it is evident, particularly in the description of how the species mix is expected to shift: Boreal species such as quaking aspen, paper birch, tamarack, and black spruce are projected to decrease in suitable habitat and biomass across the assessment area.

Species with ranges that extend to the south such as American basswood, black cherry, northern red oak, and eastern white pine may increase in suitable habitat and biomass across the assessment area.

Now I want to be clear here: This combination of carbs and maltodextrin is so effective because of the calorie content, high protein content, and high carb content. This shake is an ectomorph appetite hack. So we asked Alan Aragon for his opinion on our supplement protocol. He concluded that the study was properly conducted, and that this research was perfectly relevant for guys who are skinny and struggling to gain weight.

We can boost muscle growth even further. We can add this to the shake. Okay, now onto the specific ingredients so that you can make your own workout shake. The only significant difference between maltodextrin corn powder and flour grain powder , is that maltodextrin is safe and easily digested when mixed into a protein shake, whereas flour must be cooked first. That study in the creatine section is said to have produced the highest non-steroidal increases in lean mass ever seen in the placebo group.

The study was technically studying creatine, so the researchers were surprised when the placebo group, who was just getting corn powder, saw a massive increase in muscle mass, gaining 6 pounds of lean muscle in just 8 weeks. Part of this is due the participants being put on a fairly good lifting program. Will consuming refined carbohydrates make you fat? If you were the average man, yes, because the average man is overweight, has impaired insulin sensitivity, and is struggling to control his massive appetite.

This means that any surplus calories consumed within a couple hours of an effective workout are more likely to be stored as muscle than fat. This is why the average guy can get fat while eating a higher-carb diet. The final factor is that consuming protein, carbs and calories after your workout is highly anabolic, meaning that your body will be more inclined than ever to invest all of those calories into muscle gains.

The protein part is up next. As long as you maintain a good diet, good activity, keep your body fat low, and your fasting blood sugar remains normal, then you should be fine. Click here to check out the maltodextrin brand we recommend. Why is protein so important? Our muscle fibres are constructed out of the protein we eat, so a shortage of protein will severely limit the amount of muscle we can build.

Whether you choose to eat more chicken, greek yoghurt, whey or pumpkin seeds is up to you, though. How much protein do you need to build muscle at full speed? That depends on your lifestyle and your goals. What is whey protein? Many nutritionists and dieticians consider it a whole food, as they would with other minimally processed dairy products, like cheese and yoghurt. Why is whey protein the best type of protein powder?

Whey digests very quickly and efficiently, and it contains the perfect blend of amino acids for building muscle. This is why most commercial weight gainers will combine these two ingredients. They contain too many filler ingredients that can impede digestion, and the ratio of whey-to-maltodextrin is too low. Whey is also especially well-suited for us ectomorphs: Click here to check out the whey protein brand we recommend. The study went viral because it showed that a lot of popular brands were making false claims.

Optimum Nutrition , the brand linked above, was found to be the best. Soy protein is the best non-dairy protein powder , great for people with dairy allergies or who want to eat a plant-based diet. Creatine is by far the most powerful, legal muscle-building supplement for ectomorphs study. The only thing to watch out for is that you drink enough water. Creatine will pull fluid into your muscles, so you may need to drink a little bit of extra water. How does Creatine work? Exactly how much extra muscle will you build?

And the post-workout carb shake that allowed guys to gain 6 pounds of muscle in 8 weeks? More insulin sensitivity in your muscle cells means that more of the calories you eat are used to build muscle instead of being stored as fat. Most of us ectomorphs naturally have good insulin sensitivity, but the research shows that it will just further enhance our natural advantage. Click here to check out the creatine brand we recommend.

The best type of creatine monohydrate is actually fairly reasonably priced. Take 5 grams every day. With 5 grams per day, it will take around a month for your creatine levels to rise to max levels. To cut that loading period down to a week, you could take four 5-gram doses each day during the first week. So we recommend taking 5 grams every day instead.

If you use our links to buy the supplements, thank you! The supplements will work just as well wherever you find them. Here they are all in a row:.

The purpose of a pre-workout supplement is to give you the energy you need to get to the gym and finish your workout. There are a lot of pre-workout supplements on the market. Red is higher in caffeine, black is lower in caffeine. Hoping to join in 3 weeks. But thought I would suggest you give affiliate links to more than just bodybuilding. Have you used Amazon in the past for this? Hard to tell sometimes, but they should have an expiration date.

I even tried their own casein protein — cookies and cream flavor. No complaints overall, and price is generally cheaper than name brand. Another thing I like to do is go on slickdeals. Often people will post up good sales on whey protein amongst a million other things.

That was a good deal. Ah Marcel, our most active Australian, has been recommending bulknutrients. I would recommend doing it in this order: Could also get a PT to help you with it though, if you like! Leisurely explore the more advanced techniques, strategies and supplements. Then nutrition will supercharge that. And then you can take it to the next level with the more advanced stuff … if you want.

No need to go more advanced unless you want to. Your suggestion was a good one. Nearly identical prices on each. Perhaps more importantly … Amazon has a better selection.

Our program is geared at making an impressive visual and strength transformation first and foremost. His day job is training athletes. All of our workouts and nutrition advice should increase your performance—explosive performance. I personally found my stamina and energy levels went way up after strength training, and strength training is well known to be great for cardiovascular health.

If cardio work makes you feel better keep at it! We let our guys to cardio on their off-days if they enjoy it. Shane is right about the increase in explosive performance. Also, how many times do you actually work out on a weekly basis? We train 3 times per week for a few reasons. Some guys add in cardio, sports and recreation in between, and if they enjoy it, we highly encourage it. I have a new workout bench at home I can do plenty of different full body exercises with it , so I was also hoping that that would also be enough… anyway, writing a rather large email again!

Will starting out with push-ups, pull-ups, and sit-ups help a bit at the beginning of this program, or do I strictly need to start at a gym? If that is all you can do at the moment then yes! Anything is better than nothing. I would switch the situps to front and side planks as they tend to give you a bit more bang for your buck!

It would also be helpful to throw in some bodyweight squats! Fats can get confusing. Olive oil is an incredible source of monounsaturated fat omega 9 , and you should definitely eat plenty.

Saturated should make up the second third. And then you get into the polyunsaturated fats:. We already get too many omega 6s from nuts, bread, cereals, poultry and vegetable oils. But ALA is also needed for other fat conversions, so I probably try out 2 spoons of fishoil and add another of flax to get them all.

Our bodies are pretty good at taking care of themselves if you give them the rough ingredients they need. Do you guys not use say a post workout and pre workout drink and just have the one mentioned in the article during working out instead? Also have you guys come across Udos Choice Oil Blend for your fats and if so do you think this could replace what you have specified in this article?

If you had to pick one or the other go for the NutraSea. Hey Guys, i have a few questions before i sign up. It seems as if this has been what i have been looking for. Im 20 years old now and have only been working out seriously for about months. You can see the difference in mostly my arms. I use a pullup bar, dumbells, and my own body weight for my worksouts pushups, dips, etc and i primarily refer to this workout.

Maybe take a single dose instead of a double or triple. Hehe and make sure to also do a leg workout! Nothing will make you grow more than also hitting your legs, especially with squats and deadlifts. Your entire posterior chain will be much more powerful back, butt, legs , as well as your arms, shoulders, and grip strength. After long long time researching myself I think your program fits the gap, great work.

Do you know if vegan protein soy, rice, wheat supplements are as effective as the the animals proteins — like whey — are? Thank you very much for some help, and again: There a million and one easy options for vegetarians. Vegans are a trickier beast, and we currently only have one vegan member. Soy protein comes from monocultures and is heavily processed, so stay away from that one. Lots of problems associated with it. Fermented soy, like soy sauce, is okay. He has it enriched with BCAAs, too, which makes it fantastic for strength training and building muscle mass.

You may want to supplement with vitamin b12 and flax as well, as vegan diets are low in those nutrients. Hey, thanks for the fast and detailed information, helped a lot, especially the info about the rice and the negative issues about soy. Maybe also throw in some coconut oil just so you get at least some amount of saturated fat, which the body needs to make cholesterol, which in turn the body needs to make testosterone. And maybe some linseed oil as well to get your omega Sure there are problems with meat production environmental, ethical , but cutting it altogether seems a bit extreme.

Better to reduce consumption and eat organic if circumstances e. Most of us agree that processed foods are not too good, but isolated protein and supplements the only way to get adequate protein as a veggie are exactly that. Now I eat a small portion of meat once or twice a week, some fish on top of that, and lots of organic eggs, and feel a lot better now that I do. Want to add a question: Or is it some monthly fee or something?

Ooo but did you contrast it against the same number of calories coming from similar whole foods? I was interested to know your measurements for this monster shake. I see you have 90g protein, g dextrose, and 15g creatine, but do you take this with water?

If so, how many ounces? I fill up my water bottle with as much water as I can, which is around oz. It can be pretty sludgy, yeah, but it does dissolve! You can always, of course, use more water. Serious Mass tastes much better though! Stick to whole food or smoothies instead.

Hope that helps, and good luck! Hi Shane, great work as always. Can I use cornstarch as my source of maltodextrin? Is 3 scoops of cornstarch enough for a mid sized pound ectomorph? Flour, while theoretically fine to eat raw, is expected to be cooked. As a result the packaging rules are less stringent, and if you eat it raw you risk consuming bacteria inadvertently. In a pinch just use whey protein and eat some fruit. I find a couple pre-workout bananas work well.

Great point, glad I asked you first, whew. Thank you so much man. I really appreciate the advice. I figure I should give you some more details, since this stuff can get really confusing. The number one ingredient in Serious Mass is maltodextrin, which is their equivalent of dextrose.

Since people are scared of sugar on nutrition labels this is a plus for them. Our body will use it in exactly the same way. No advantage or disadvantage here, just a different way of accomplishing the same thing. Next up on the ingredient list is a blend of protein. The reason why I prefer our homemade blend here is that we use a whey protein isolate. The purity is much higher. Not quite as good. All that is relatively minor though. Wow , thank you Shane! This site is awsome. I will refer this site to all my gym buddies so they can learn also the truth about training and supplements.

Hey bro shane, i got this 12lbs serious mass and 5lbs Gold standard whey as a birthday gift from my uncle, can i use whey along this serious mass? Just want to ask how to use these 2 type of supplements, how and when to take it? Serious Mass makes a good intra-workout drink, so you could drink it during or right after training. The protein content is a little low, so you could drop the dose of serious mass a bit and add in some whey.

You can also take the whey along with meals where the protein content is low. Might result in some fat gains too. There are a lot of complex issues as to why, but as a basic rule you want lots of vitamin-rich foods that digest at a steady pace. Serious Mass is like having a slice of cake with a whey shake on the side. Hey Shane what you think about casein protein before going to sleep? Is for us ectomorphs important or it dont worth that money and is better to eat some cottage cheese instead for example?

Actually I bet casein protein is cheaper than cottage cheese. Protein powders are actually usually a pretty good price compared with whole food. Greek yogurt is great, too, and also packed full of casein. It has tons of probiotics in it, which are great for ectomorphs trying to digest more food than their bodies are used to. Start mixing in berries and stuff, to make it taste better, and it gets even more expensive.

Eggs are another good source of pre-bed protein. The sugars in milk digest extremely slowly, too, making them a great source of pre-bed carbs. You can eat anything before bed though. Currently I have 60g of dextrose and 35g of isolated protein straight m workout. That pre-workout meal sounds pretty great, so if your diet consists mostly of vitamin-rich whole foods like that you should be pretty good. I eat well … but when trying to quickly build muscle I still have a huge 3x workout shake.

Yep, you could buy something like Universal Torrent and take a x dose! Buying the ingredients separately and mixing them yourself is the most cost-efficient way to go.

Universal Torrent tastes a whole hell of a lot better though! It seems to me that if you want 2g EPA and 1. According to the label, in a 1 tsp. This is equivalent to one tbsp. Or did I miss something? I noticed that the article says 2 tbsp, one morning one night, not 3. Thanks for your information packed articles! What are your thoughts on adding AAKG to the training drink? I have seen numerous proponents supporting AAKG specifically for ectomorphs. Caffeine would be the ultimate supplement for performance enhancement there, making coffee or an energy drink a great choice.

If you want to really geek out you could check out this review into arginine, which basically says that regular protein or BCAAs contain everything that arginine offers and more, making arginine a poor supplement when you could use protein instead.

Do you think it would be better as to have other weight gainer supplements during the day to add more calories to my diet? I think there are much better alternatives when it comes to trying to eat more calories, even if you have a small appetite.

Whole grain bread, natural peanut butter and your favourite type of jam. Bonus points for peanut butter and banana sandwich instead.

I just bought Dymitize Isolate, but little anything in it. HELP, I relate to what you are saying. I feel up pretty quickly, but breakfast is my best meal of the day. You know what you are talking about, that is why I am reaching out for help in what you say.

As I have to watch for no Pre-Diabetes. I had instance two years ago. Hello, I am ectomorphic and tired of it. I stumbled upon this blog in my quest to gain muscle. With reference to the supplements listed in this blog:. Should I mix the whey protein and dextrose powder before a workout, during a workout, after a workout or all of the above? How should I attempt to consume creatine on a daily basis? Should I mix it with any liquids I consume? If so, what brands of these supplements do you prefer?

All of the above is good. And most of the brands we list you should be able to find at the local GNC. You Aussies seem to kick ass at this, too. Some great transformations going on down there!! Regarding the payment plan, shoot me an email at us bonytobeastly. Saving money, energy, and my body using this post! Takes a bit longer then the banned PH gods, but it is a hell of a lot safer. Keep up the good work my dude!

Glad you like it, man! My problem is that i do not gain in my arms, even though i pay full attention to them and they are still very thin. I have a few questions and would be really obliged to get a response from you on them: Can i use only creatine? Does it also help in muscle building and getting bigger, apart from providing energy to get those extra reps? If i use creatine, how much quantity is safe and sufficient? When should it be used before or after the workout?

Is the loading phase necessary? Does the ability to lift more and size of muscles reduce if i stop taking it?

Is it hard to digest like whey protein? Sushant 5 grams pre and post workout, technically the loading faze is not needed but recommended for ectomorphs.

Creatine is a really good supp for natural lifters you just gotta stay consistent with it to see results. Hey Will, thanks a lot for your reply mate.

I already have 6 eggs, protein biscuits, nuts and a very basic protein supplement as i mentioned before along with other protein rich food. So that makes up for about gms of protein daily. Before workout i have 2 bananas, 2 eggs, 2 protein biscuits and almonds and immediately after workout i have 2 bananas along with the protein supplement mixed with whole milk , 2 protein biscuits, 2 eggs and a high carb meal 2 hours later.

Can i just add 5 grms of creatine to this diet? Hey Sushant — cool questions. First off, congrats on the 10kg! You must be pumped! Check out the creatine section for details about what it does it does a lot beyond helping with reps , and check out the protocol at the end of the article for how to take it. No need to mix it with anything or get all fancy with it.

So, more chin ups, yates bent over rows, cable curls, tricep extensions, close grip pushups, etc. Squats, deads, bench, chins, carries, planks, etc. Hey Shane, thanks a lot for all that information man.

You guys are doing an amazing work with this site, kudos to you for that. We have a lot of gyms here but sadly not many knowledgeable trainers, so there are a lot of us here looking for professional help in trying to understand our body better and gain and this site with people like you are doing a tremendous job.

Thank you for that! You cleared almost all my doubts about creatine and i might be going for it soon after gaining a little more weight. I followed your advice about the arm training and am waiting for some good results. Sean Go on bodybuilding. Buying products at shops is usually a rip off, trust me I worked at one for awhile Jesus would we sell supps for super high prices lol. Good luck with your supplement search brotha. Luckily creatine is often relatively low in price, so you could probably still get a few months supply for a decent price.

It seems like you were only tripling the dose of whey and creatine…. Great site by the way. I just stumbled upon it after getting a gym membership and looking into supplements. Yeah, we take quite a bit of dextrose. You can still do great with a much smaller dosage! It sounds like it could be pretty dangerous on blood sugar levels…do you have a study reference? I believe the blood needs to occupy the muscle instead of aiding in digestion, but to each their own.

Check out some of the studies linked in the dextrose section regarding the effectiveness of the protocol. When thinking of blood sugar we need to think not so much about the glycemic index and more so about the glycemic load , i. And your conclusion is correct — it will. And the healthier and more insulin sensitive you are, the better this technique will work.

Will this reduce your sensitivity to insulin? As always, though, your health is in your hands, so follow the advice of your physician! Are you advocating that this concoction is a big secret to adding weight to your muscles? Is this one of the major catalysts to quick weight gain targeted at the muscles? Is there a reputable supplement that contains dextrose, casein and whey or similar equivalents?

Tons and tons of them! One I recommend is Universal Torrent , just keep in mind that you may need to adjust your serving size! And after reading many of the other posts about posture and ratios and watching some videos etc… I still wanted to ask you a question. I lifted all throughout high school and then some and never gained hence finding your awesome site then a gym accident and I stopped going around the age of I turned 23 little over a month ago and have decided to go back to the gym and incorporate it into my lifestyle as I believe yes it does in general lead to a better life and happiness.

I know that you arent a doctor but you seem like a pretty smart guy. I am just curious as to your input on the arm situation in terms of symmetry and alignment and how you think it may develop in comparison to my right arm.

I dont know if that means in length or density or altogether. I also dont know if the growth plate on my humerus has anything to do with the growth of the rest of the bones in that arm like the bones in my forearms, wrists, and hands. I just figure the more info I give you the better you are able to get an idea. And sometimes I do notice differences when using an olympic bar for say some wrist curls or regular curls the bar will not be straight.

I know there are dumbbells and cables but I dont want to cut out exercise where I have to use both hands on one bar. I am just kind of stumped as to the best route to take with it. Second, everyone has their challenges, limitations and setbacks. As for your shoulder being higher … are you certain that has to do with your injury?

Everyone has a higher left shoulder — and I mean everyone. This has to do with asymmetrical organs and innards, and how that affects our breathing. I would go with your doctors advice on that one, as he presumably knows your situation and the human body far better, and work with a coach or personal trainer while you train. And yes your information does indeed help. As far as the shoulder sitting higher that could be I just dont know if the growth plate ties into muscle or tendon growth as well, just something I will have to look into.

I am looking into getting a second opinion on it for sure. And also yeah I see what you mean about muscle building helping to keep the shoulder in place because it only popped out once while i was in high school and doing padded football almost everyday with people bigger than I and we also had to lift just about every day.

And now it cant even hold up in a game of sandlot? Definitely a defining moment in wanting to take my fitness life back on the right track. I checked out the creatine, dextrose, whey, and fish oil and will probably be purchasing that and giving the super drink a try at least due to it being amazingly low in price and actually may be even better for me in general considering whats on the rest of the market.

I just finished some Intek evolution protein powder that Lou Ferrigno at total nutrition recommended when I went in asking for the equivalent of a product I used to take and saying that was the same thing but this just has more natural vitamins and it tastes good even after I said I dont care about taste just how it affects my body in terms of health and results.

But I am pretty positive he just looked at my size males subconsciously judging other males based on shoulders etc… and figured I was a January resolution monther and just wanted me to buy what he needed to sell. So I would rather buy from people who actually care about what they are telling people to put into their body.

I can at least use your links to throw some kickback your guys way. I would like to get the largest amounts possible from those sites but like I said a little strapped lol. I would love to discuss more and more like how I workout and where the hell you guys go and jump in water with icebergs in it and everything but hopefully I will be able to in the near future.

Thanks for all your help and if you have anymore you feel like offering please go right ahead haha. Have a good one. So you rate universal torrent better than optimum serious mass then? Great read dude, Checking in here from Los Angeles. Honestly, every single thing you described in the video on the product description page has been a feeling or experience that I have gone through personally.

Props to you for speaking the truth. Should be a lot better and more legitimate. Gonna have a sample sent to my email from the product description page.

But the program I use Stronglifts is not necessarily tailored specifically to ectomorphs. It works, but I feel if it was more personalized, I could legitimately have a chance to reach my goal of lbs, with a nice body not a fat ass.. Otherwise, great work guys. Thanks for keeping it real on your site. Hope to hear back from you soon. First off congrats on the gains!

I gave the site a look and it looks like classic strength training, which is pretty badass. I quite like it. We place a big emphasis on nutrition, and mastering things from that side as well results, health and feeling great. We try to make it easy and enjoyable. We can help you track your results, tweak the program to fit your goals and situation, and give you feedback and suggestions as you go through.

Our members are all great guys too — I love it. Training in a slightly different style could give you some sweet results, too, as it gives you a new arena to master.

I hope that helps! My blood glucose level has always been normal. But it caused my fasting glucose level to shoot up to Ever since I gave up Serious Mass, my blood glucose level has returned to normal. Or how could I safely substitute the dextrose? Truth be told this is quite similar to Serious Mass, just a bare bones cheaper alternative with dosages designed for ectomorphs. Some questions — were you taking the serious mass peri-workout, or as a meal replacement?

Were you taking it in a fasted state, i. Can you ditch the dextrose? Those are possibly responsible for even more muscle growth than the protein! Allometric scaling refers to scaling physiological rates and quantities to mass or volume of one animal species to another animal species. Many physiological and biochemical processes such as heart rate, basal metabolic rate, and respiration rate have been found to have a scaling component of 0.

Allometric scaling is most applicable when the toxicologically relevant dose is a parent compound or stable metabolite whose absorption rate and clearance from the target site is controlled primarily by first order processes.

Allometric scaling is less well suited for portal-of-entry effects or when toxicity is a consequence of a highly reactive compound or metabolite. Portal of entry refers to the tissue or organ of first contact between the biological system and the agent.

This is nasal, respiratory tract and pulmonary tissues for inhalation; skin for dermal contact, and mouth and digestive tract for oral exposure. In the case of respiratory tract effects from inhalation, EPA recommends adjusting inhalation doses based on generic dosimetry modeling that depends on the form of the chemical e. For example, the human equivalent for a reactive gas that exerts its toxic effect on the respiratory tract is scaled based on animal to human differences in ventilation rate and regional surface area of the respiratory tract.

On the other hand, the dosimetry model adjustment for an insoluble gas that exerts its effect in a tissue remote from the lung is scaled by species differences in the blood: The generic dosimetry models can accommodate specific chemical data, if available. The models are only intended to account for human-to-animal differences in bioavailability and further allometric or extrapolation factors may be needed to account for species differences in metabolic activation and toxicodynamics i.

Several methodologies have been utilized to adjust critical study exposures to a worker equivalent under representative occupational exposure conditions including standard ventilation rates, allometric scaling, and toxicokinetic modeling. What are reasonable and acceptable methods to determine worker equivalent exposure concentrations, especially from studies in animals or other experimental systems? The worker-adjusted LETE that is derived from dose-response analysis in the observed range should be regarded as a chemical exposure level that leads to significant risk of harm.

In most cases, the LETE is expected to elicit a toxic response in 1 to 10 percent of the worker population. This approximates an excess risk of 10 to cases of impairment per exposed workers over a duration that is typically less than a year working life. This degree of risk would exceed the 1 per probability that OSHA historically regards as a clearly significant risk. Therefore, Agency risk assessments are directed at determining significant risk at these feasible exposures.

Because of the feasibility constraints, low dose extrapolation is not always needed to make the required risk findings. NIOSH also develops workplace exposure limits. These recommended exposure limits RELs are based on risk evaluations using human or animal health effects data. The exposure levels that can be achieved by engineering controls and measured by analytical techniques are considered in the development of RELs, but the recommended levels are often below what OSHA regards as technologically feasible.

A MOE approach can assist in determining the need to extrapolate risk below the observed range. A large MOE i. This situation would require low-dose risk extrapolation to determine whether technologically feasible exposures lead to significant risk. In this situation, OSHA would set the PEL at the exposure level it determines to be feasible and the dose- response analysis in the observed range should be sufficient to support Agency significant risk findings.

There are several factors that OSHA would need to consider in order to find that the MOE is adequate to avoid low-dose risk extrapolation. These include the nature of the adverse outcome, the magnitude of the effect, the methodological designs and experimental models of the selected studies, the exposure metric associated with the outcome, and the exposure period over which the outcome was studied.

OSHA may regard a larger MOE as acceptable to avoid the need for low-dose extrapolation for serious clinical effects than a less serious subclinical outcome.

A larger MOE may also be found acceptable for irreversible health outcomes that continue to progress with continued exposure and respond poorly to treatment than reversible health outcomes that do not progress with further exposure. Health outcomes that relate to cumulative exposures would tolerate higher MOEs than similar outcomes unrelated to cumulative exposure, especially in short-term studies. In some instances, an adverse outcome observed in experimental animals would tolerate higher MOEs than the same response in a human study that more closely resembles the occupational situation.

Other Federal agencies apply the MOE approach as part of the risk assessment process. In its report on the appropriate uses of risk assessment and risk management in federal regulatory programs, the Presidential Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management recommended MOE as an approach that provides a common metric for comparing health risks across different toxicities and public health programs PCRARM, ; Ex.

Is this a reasonable means of determining if further low dose extrapolation methods are needed to meet agency significant risk findings? What other approaches should be considered?

Extrapolation Below the Observed Range The last step in the tiered approach is extrapolation of risk below the observed range.

This low-dose extrapolation would only be needed if the MOE is sufficiently high to warrant further dose-response analysis. This situation occurs when technologically feasible exposures are far below the LETE and quantitative estimates of risk could be highly informative in the determination of significant risk. As described in subsection A. Depending on the nature of the exposure-response data, the Agency has relied on a wide range of different models that have included linear relative risk e.

Probabilistic risk models can require considerable time and resources to construct, parameterize, and statistically verify against appropriate study data, especially for a large number of chemical substances.

As mentioned previously, several government authorities responsible for managing the risk to human populations posed by hazardous chemicals commonly use the computationally less complex uncertainty factor approach to extrapolate dose-response below the observed range.

The uncertainty factors account for variability in response within the human population, uncertainty with regard to the differences between experimental animals and humans, and uncertainty associated with various other data inferences made in the assessment.

For each of these considerations, a numerical value is assigned and the point of departure is divided by the product of all applied uncertainty factors. The result is an exposure level considered to be without appreciable risk. OSHA attempted to apply uncertainty factors in the Air Contaminants Rule to ensure that new PELs were set at levels that were sufficiently below exposures observed to cause health effects. The Eleventh Circuit ruled that OSHA had failed to show how uncertainty factors addressed the extent of risk posed by individual substances and that similarly, OSHA failed to explain the method it used to derive the safety factors.

Air Contaminants F. The scientific considerations for applying individual factors have been carefully articulated by EPA and other scientific authorities in various guidance materials EPA, ; Ex. For some factors under certain circumstances, it is being proposed that standard 'default' values can be replaced with 'data-driven' values EPA, ; Ex.

However, the type and magnitude of the uncertainty factor employed for any individual substance still requires a degree of scientific judgment. The methodology does not provide quantitative exposure-specific estimates of risk, such as one in a thousand, that can readily be compared to the significant risk probabilities discussed in the Benzene decision. The National Research Council's Science and Decisions report recently advocated a dose-response framework that provides quantitative risk estimates by applying distributions instead of 'single value' factors NRC, ; Ex.

The critical extrapolation factors, such as species differences in toxic response at equivalent target doses and inter-individual variability in the human population are defined by lognormal distribution with an estimated standard deviation. This allows the human equivalent LETE to be derived in terms of a median and statistical lower confidence bound.

The distributional nature of the analysis facilitates extrapolation in terms of a probabilistic projection of average and upper bound risk at specific exposures, such as X number of individuals projected to develop disease out of workers exposed to Z level of a toxic substance within some confidence level Y. The NRC report describes several different conceptual models with case examples and extrapolation factor distribution calculations NRC, ; Ex.

Can the uncertainty factor methodology for extrapolating below the observed range for non-cancer effects be successfully adapted by OSHA to streamline its risk assessment process for the purpose of setting updated PELs? Why or why not? Are there advantages and disadvantages to applying extrapolation factor distributions rather than single uncertainty factor values? Please explain your reasoning. Chemical Grouping for Risk Assessment OSHA is also considering the use of one or more chemical grouping approaches to expedite the risk assessment process.

In certain cases, it may be appropriate to extrapolate data about one chemical across a group or category of similar chemicals. These approaches are discussed below. Background on Chemical Grouping The term 'grouping' or 'chemical grouping' describes the general approach to assessing more than one chemical at the same time. It can include formation of a chemical category or identification of a chemical analogue OECD, ; Ex.

Chemical categories or analogues can be based on the structural relationship between the chemicals being grouped. Structure-activity relationships SAR are relationships between a compound's chemical structure and physicochemical properties and its biological effects e.

A chemical category is selected based on the hypothesis that the properties of a series of chemicals with common features will show coherent trends in their physical-chemical properties, and more importantly, in their toxicological effects OECD, ; Ex.

The use of a category approach means that it is possible to identify chemical properties which are common to at least some members of the category. This approach provides a basis for establishing trends in properties across that category and extends the measured data e. In the category approach, not every chemical in a group needs to have exposure-response data in order to be evaluated.

Rather, the overall data for the category as a whole must prove adequate to support a risk assessment. The overall data set must allow for an assessment of risk for the compounds and adverse outcomes that lack adequate study.

Chemicals may be grouped for risk assessment based on the following: Common functional group e. Within a chemical category, data gaps may be filled by read-across, trend analysis and Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships QSARs and threshold of toxicological concern.

In some cases, an effect can be present for some but not all members of the category. An example is the glycol ethers, where the lower carbon chain length members of the category indicate reproductive toxicity but the higher carbon chain length members of the category do not. In other cases, the category may show a consistent trend where the resulting potencies lead to different classifications OECD, ; Ex.

Methods of Gap Analysis and Filling As a result of grouping chemicals based on similarities determined when employing the various techniques as described above, data gap filling in a chemical category can be carried out by applying one or more of the following procedures: Read-Across Method The read-across approach uses endpoint information for one chemical the source chemical to predict the same endpoint for another chemical the target chemical , which is considered to be "similar" in some way usually on the basis of structural similarity or on the basis of the same mode or mechanisms of action.

Read-across methods have been used to assess physicochemical properties and toxicity in a qualitative or quantitative manner. The main application for qualitative read- across is in hazard identification. Trend Analysis Chemical category members are often related by a trend e. The relationship of the categorical trend could be molecular mass, carbon chain length, or to some other physicochemical property.

The observation of a trend increasing, decreasing or constant in the experimental data for a given endpoint across chemicals can be used as the basis for interpolation and possibly also extrapolation to fill data gaps for chemicals with little to no data. Interpolation is the estimation of a value for a member using measured values from other members on "both sides" of that member within the defined category spectrum, whereas extrapolation refers to the estimation of a value for a member that is near or at the category boundary using measured values from internal category members OECD, ; Ex.

Are QSAR, read-across, and trend analysis acceptable methods for developing risk assessments for a category of chemicals with similar structural alerts chemical groupings known to be associated with a particular type of toxic effect, e. Are there other suitable approaches? Threshold of Toxicological Concern TTC The Threshold of Toxicological Concern TTC refers to the establishment of an exposure level for a group of chemicals below which there would be no appreciable risk to human health.

The original concept proposed that a low level of exposure with a negligible risk can be identified for many chemicals, including those of unknown toxicity, based on knowledge of their chemical structures. The TTC approach is a form of risk characterization in which uncertainties arising from the use of data on other compounds are balanced against the low level of exposure. The approach was initially developed by the FDA for migration of chemicals from consumer packaging into food products and used a single threshold value of 1.

The TTC principle extends the concept used in setting acceptable daily allowable intakes ADIs by proposing that a de minimis value can be identified for chemicals with little to no toxicity data utilizing information from structurally related chemicals with known toxicities. A decision tree can be developed to apply the TTC principle for risk assessment decisions: The paradigm shift is being largely driven by the technological advances in molecular systems biology such as the use of high throughput screening HTS assays, new computational methods to predict chemical properties, and computer models able to associate molecular events with a biological response.

The vision, strategies, and frameworks for applying the new toxicity data to risk-based decision making are laid out in landmark reports by the National Research Council NRC, ; Ex. Tox21 has already screened over a compounds in more than 50 quantitative HTS assays that have been made available to the scientific community through publically accessible databases e. The objectives of NexGen are to pilot the new NRC risk assessment framework, refine existing bioinformatics systems, and develop specific prototype health risk assessments.

These objectives are expected to be achieved through an iterative development process that includes discussion with scientists, risk managers, and stakeholders. How should OSHA utilize the new molecular-based toxicity data, high throughput and computer-based computational approaches being generated on many workplace chemicals and the updated NRC risk-based decision making framework to inform future Agency risk assessments? Considerations for Technological Feasibility Before adopting a particular regulatory alternative, the Agency must demonstrate that it is technologically feasible.

As OSHA currently performs it, a technological feasibility analysis is often one of the most resource-intensive aspects of the rulemaking process. The Agency must identify all of the industries that are potentially affected and compile the available information on current worker exposure and existing controls for each industry.

On occasion, the best information available for technological feasibility analyses comes from sparse and incomplete data sets. Rather than rely exclusively on such variable information, OSHA is considering the use of exposure modeling, such as computational fluid dynamics CFD modeling, for a more complete picture of worker exposures and the potential effectiveness of different control strategies. Additionally, OSHA is looking at other sources of information, such as the REACH initiative from the European Union, that may help the Agency to better characterize industries or jobs where there is little to no data on worker exposures and control technologies.

In general, OSHA determines that a regulatory alternative is technologically feasible when it has evidence that demonstrates the alternative is achievable in most operations most of the time. The Agency must also show that sampling and analytical methods can measure exposures at the proposed PEL within an acceptable degree of accuracy.

OSHA makes these determinations in the technological feasibility analysis, which is made available to the public in the OSHA rulemaking docket.

Current Methodology of the Technological Feasibility Requirement To develop its technological feasibility analysis, the Agency must first collect the information about the industries that are affected by a particular hazard, the sources of exposure, the frequency of the exposure, the number of workers exposed to various levels, what control measures or other efforts are being made to reduce exposure to the hazard, and what sampling and analytical methods are available.

This information is typically obtained from numerous sources including: With this information, OSHA creates profiles that identify the industries where exposures occur, what operations lead to exposures, and what engineering controls and work practices are being implemented to mitigate exposures. A technological feasibility analysis is typically organized by industry sector or group of sectors that performs a unique activity involving similar activities.

OSHA identifies the operations that lead to exposures in all of these industries, and eventually determines the feasibility of a PEL by analyzing whether the PEL can be achieved in most operations most of the time, as an aggregate across all industries affected.

OSHA has also utilized an application approach that evaluates the feasibility of controls for a specific type of process used across a number of industry sectors, such as welding, rather than on an industry-by- industry basis. OSHA develops detailed descriptions of how the substance is used in different industries, the work activities during which workers are exposed, and the primary sources of exposure.

The Agency also constructs exposure profiles for each industry, or by job category, based on operations performed. The Agency classifies workers by job categories within those industries, based on how similar work processes are, and to what extent similar engineering controls can be applied to control exposures in those processes.

Each exposure profile contains a list of affected job categories, summary statistics for each job category and subcategories such as the mean, median, and range of exposures , and the distribution of worker exposures using increments based on the regulatory alternatives. OSHA's technological feasibility analyses for PEL-setting standards have traditionally relied on full-shift, personal breathing zone PBZ samples to create exposure profiles.

A PBZ sample is the best sample type to quantify the inhalation exposure of a worker. Area samples are typically not used to construct exposure profiles but are useful to characterize how much airborne contamination is present in a work environment and to evaluate the effectiveness of engineering and other process control measures. Exposure profiles are used to establish the baseline exposure conditions for every job category in affected industries.

Baseline conditions are developed to allow the Agency to estimate the extent to which additional controls will be required to achieve a level specified by a regulatory alternative. Next, the technological feasibility analysis describes the additional controls necessary to achieve the regulatory alternatives.

OSHA relies on its traditional hierarchy of controls when demonstrating the feasibility of control technology. The traditional hierarchy of controls includes, in order of preference: Substitution, local exhaust ventilation, dust suppression, process enclosures, work practices, and housekeeping. OSHA considers use of personal protective equipment, such as respirators, to be is the least effective method for controlling employee exposure, and therefore, personal protective equipment is considered only for limited situations in which all feasible engineering controls have been implemented, but do not effectively reduce exposure to below the permissible exposure limit.

To identify what additional controls are feasible, the Agency conducts a detailed investigation of the controls used in different industries based primarily on case studies. OSHA develops preliminary conclusions regarding feasibility of regulatory alternatives, by identifying the lowest levels of exposure that are technologically feasible in workplaces.

To determine whether an alternative is feasible throughout the spectrum of affected industries, OSHA studies whether the regulatory alternative is achievable in most operations most of the time by a typical firm. OSHA may also determine whether a specific process used across a number of different industries can be effectively controlled.

Role of Exposure Modeling in Technological Feasibility In many situations, the Agency has found it difficult to develop comprehensive exposure profiles and determine additional controls because of limitations associated with the available exposure data. These information gaps could be filled by incorporating exposure modeling into the technological feasibility process.

The limitations associated with the data collected include: Limited number of exposure samples: On occasions, an exposure profile for a job category may be built on a limited number of full-shift exposure samples, and the Agency has to judge whether the samples available are representative of the actual exposure distribution for that industry. Limit of Detection LOD issues: Because only a few exposure samples may be available for a job category, the analysis may include samples reported as "less than" values, high LODs, or adjusted LOD values.

This causes inconsistency in the use of LOD samples and may cause the Agency to under- or over-estimate the actual exposure distribution. Lack of information on controls associated with data: Information regarding working conditions and control strategies associated with exposure samples may not be available. This makes it difficult for the Agency to determine the impact of the control strategies for various sources of exposure.

Additionally, it is common that the data does not include information about the exact nature of the task performed during the sampling period.

Sometimes, samples may not exactly correspond to the job category to which OSHA assigns it in the analysis because the job activities performed are not adequately described. Limitations of traditional industrial hygiene sampling: Traditional industrial hygiene practices require a "before and after" data set to gauge the effectiveness of control strategies implemented, and changes that occur in the working environment during the sampling periods. The exact impact of control strategies and environmental conditions cannot be determined easily with only one set of samples obtained at a discrete moment in time.

It is often the case that OSHA does not have the luxury of "before and after" data sets and must determine how the sample set fits into the exposure profile. Since the Agency may lack exposure data for a particular job category or operation, it sometimes relies on IMIS data. OSHA does not usually rely on IMIS data in its exposure profiles unless there are no other exposure data available because the IMIS data can have some significant limitations, which include the following: For example, an analyst cannot tell from the information available in the IMIS database if a sample was targeted for the hazard in question, or if it was part of a larger metal screening process if the hazard is a metal , which typically includes up to 16 different metals whether they are thought to be present in the sampling environment or not.

This limits the interpretation of the data, since an analyst is not able to attribute the exposure to any particular practice or process, and cannot recommend engineering controls. Case files from OSHA inspections contain more detailed information on worker activities and exposure controls observed at the time an exposure sample is taken. Thus, use of case files to a large extent mitigates the limitations of using IMIS data.

For most health standards, OSHA does not have the resources to conduct site visits to obtain the necessary exposure information at firms that are representative of all the affected industries. In an effort to develop more robust exposure profiles, the Agency is considering the use of exposure modeling, such as computational fluid dynamics CFD modeling, to complement the exposure information that is already available from literature, site visits, NIOSH and similar field investigations, and employer-provided data.

This technique would potentially allow OSHA to better estimate workplace exposures in those environments were data are limited. OSHA described how it obtains information necessary to conduct its industry profiles. Are there additional or better sources of information on the industries where exposures are likely, the numbers of workers and current exposure levels that OSHA could use? CFD is a discipline of fluid mechanics that uses computer modeling to solve complex problems involving fluid flows.

Fluid flow is the physical behavior of fluids, either liquids or gases, and it is represented by systems of partial differential equations that describe conservation of energy, mass, and momentum. For some physical phenomena, such as the laminar flow of a fluid through a cylindrical pipe, these equations can be solved mathematically.

Such solutions describe how a fluid will move through the specified area, or geometry, as a function of time. For more complex physical phenomena, such as turbulent flow of a fluid through a complex geometry, numerical approaches are used to solve the governing differential equations. As such, CFD modeling uses mathematical models and numerical methods to determine how fluids will behave according to a particular set of variables and parameters.

A mathematical model simulates the physical phenomena under consideration i. Overall, CFD modeling enables scientists and engineers to perform computer simulations in order to make better qualitative and quantitative predictions of fluid flows.

Some modeling techniques, such as CFD, allow a user to create a virtual geometry to simulate actual work environments using appropriate mathematical models and computational methods.

The solutions predict exposures at any given time and in any point in the space of the geometry established. A model developed with this technique allows the user to evaluate exposures in a worker's personal breathing zone and identify areas in the work space that present high concentrations of the contaminant. Because the exposure concentration can be solved as a function of time, the user can observe how concentration increases or decreases with time or other changes in the model input parameters.

This allows the user to consider administrative controls such as limiting the time of the operation, the quantity of material emitted by the process, or determining how long after an operation a worker can safely enter a previously contaminated area.

In some cases, work tasks and processes that are time-varying can be communicated to the CFD model through time-varying boundary conditions. Models require a defined geometry i. To construct geometries of complex work environments, OSHA would need to gather the necessary information to model the work environment. This includes taking measurements of the work area, machinery, engineering control specifications e. Moreover, gathering site-specific information for building CFD models can be integrated with traditional industrial hygiene survey activities.

OSHA is interested in identifying ways to reduce the time and money that may be spent recreating work environments. One alternative is to import facility layouts in an electronic format such as CAD into the modeling software. If an establishment has its facility layout in this format, then the model designer would not have to take physical measurements and recreate the work area by 3-D modeling.

In cases where there is no exposure information available, to what degree should OSHA rely on modeling results to develop exposure profiles and feasible control strategies? Please explain why or why not. What partnerships should OSHA seek to obtain information required to most efficiently construct models of work environments?

More specifically, how should OSHA select facility layouts to model that are representative of typical work environments in a particular industry? Note that the considerations should include variables such as work area dimensions, production volumes and ventilation rates in order to develop models for both large and small scale operations.

Models must undergo validation and testing to determine if they provide an accurate prediction of the physical phenomenon under consideration, or in this case, the concentrations of air contaminants to which workers could be potentially exposed. Sensitivity analyses can be used to determine if model outputs are consistent given minor changes to grid cell size and time step duration.

Grid cell size refers to the division of space according to nodes, and time step refers to the value attributed to the time variable to numerically solve the equations with reference to the nodes. Another method for model evaluation is the comparison between the solutions of different models to the same problem in that a similarity of findings across multiple CFD models would provide greater confidence in the results.

Arguably, the best performance evaluation is the comparison of model results to those of a field experiment that simulates on different scales the actual work environment. This method of predicting workplace exposures has some potential advantages over traditional industrial hygiene sampling methods.

Some of these are: In many current and future applications, the cost of a computational method may be lower than the corresponding sampling cost. As mentioned above, the most resource-consuming aspect of solid modeling is simulating the geometry that resembles actual physical space of work environments.

A numerical solution to predict exposures can be obtained very easily in a day. A user could manipulate different configurations regarding worker positioning and engineering controls to find an optimal control strategy.

A computer solution provides the values of all relevant variables throughout the domain of interest. These variables cover fluid flow patterns, areas in the geometry with highest concentrations of contamination, exposure values at any point in the geometry, time profile of contamination, and exposure results based on different control configurations.

Traditional industrial hygiene sampling does not allow for this level of analysis as it measures results based on a particular work environment, and it cannot distinguish how each independent variable e. Ability to simulate realistic conditions: A computer solution can accommodate any environmental condition and the values for all variables that affect the solution can be easily modified to fit a particular scenario.

The solutions obtained depend on the mathematical model used to simulate the situation, the value of the input parameters, and the numerical method used to obtain a solution. As Patankar notes, "a perfectly satisfactory numerical technique can produce worthless results if an inadequate mathematical model is employed".

Toluene Introduction: